Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 3, 2017 0:20:37 GMT
Yet another long, silent journey back from Taunton tonight I imagine. The KentCricket Twitter page locates the positives in today's match, concluding that one-day cricket was the winner (and I'm sure it must have been fun to watch). Whereas: our assistant-coach in exile, though generous with his comments in 140 characters or less when things go our way, has no words for us when they don't. I expect he's only interested in winners. (We don't appreciate that kind of attitude at Kent).
Well I think this weekend's fixtures are still 'must-win' games rather than 'who cares?' games. But since only the top third of the table will proceed to the quarter/semi-finals, I should think you'll almost certainly need to win more than half your games to qualify (though it's still theoretically possible for everyone to win four and lose four, and then it would come down to NRs and NRR). Anyway whoever loses Friday's match between Kent and Sussex will probably need to win all of their remaining matches, and the winner might be able to afford one further defeat and still keep a straight face while incorporating the #RoadToLords hashtag in their promotional material.
Of course that still might not be enough, since more than three counties could win five of their eight games. But you'd stay interested right to the end. At this point, perhaps one thing that Kent and Sussex fans could agree upon is ... Go Somerset!
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Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 5, 2017 22:09:39 GMT
System working well ... send more bowlers.
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Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 8, 2017 0:32:41 GMT
Well they do say it's the low targets that are the most difficult to chase down. (They say many things, and I don't pretend to understand all of them). If Kent could bat the way they did on Friday, and bowl & field the way they did today, but do both on the same day - our opponents would be just as petrified of us as Sam Billings insists his IPL team-mates are of the England one-day side.
Back in the real world, Kent fans are accustomed to compiling spreadsheets and matrices as early as the first week in May, as we try to work out whether or not Kent retain a theoretical chance of progressing in a particular tournament. It looks as though if we win our four remaining matches we'll definitely end up somewhere in the top five, along with Somerset, Sussex, Essex and Hampshire. Some outcomes would put us in the top three, as is necessary to proceed, but we can't influence that.
I think we want Somerset to beat Hampshire on Wednesday. That would give Somerset the same number of points as Kent would have if Kent won all of their remaining games, but Somerset would still have three games left to play. Realistically, we're not going to be duking it out with Somerset for a qualifying slot, so they might as well deprive a more likely rival of ours of 2 points. Hampshire's maximum possible points would then be the same as Kent's, and we'd probably end up ahead on Net Run-Rate, so we'd be in the top four and needing to finish ahead of either Essex or Sussex to qualify.
So in the other relevant match on Wednesday (apart from Kent beating Gloucestershire, of course), it's probably best if Essex beat Sussex. They're notionally neck-and-neck on games and wins (after Essex's implied loss to Kent a week later), but Sussex's no-result could end up being as good as a win. Anyway see how we're looking after Wednesday's games when the situation should be much simpler, one way or the other.
Edit: I don't suppose anyone is looking to me for analysis as to which results would assist Kent on Wednesday. But just in case anyone read my last paragraph above, and deemed it stupid - I agree.
Assuming Somerset will qualify then of course Kent only need to finish above one of Sussex and Essex, and as things stand it'll be easier to finish above Essex. So we want Somerset to beat Hampshire, and Sussex to beat Essex. Then, as long as Kent win all their remaining games, I reckon we'll probably qualify as the worst case will be that we're level on points with Hampshire and Essex, and by doing all this winning we should beat both teams on NRR.
Our win on Sunday has prompted another robotic tweet of congratulation from Allan Donald. These are turning out to be an unexpected source of entertainment for connoisseurs of token Twitter action.
"Great win by @kentcricket beating @middlesex_CCC by 46 runs. Well done men fantastic bounce back."
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Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 10, 2017 18:48:04 GMT
Continuing with my popular RL50 blog, after Kent's valiant attempt to score 120 off 20 with 9 in hand at Bristol today ... (well that was the last score I'd heard before getting home and finding out the result. I'd thought it seemed do-able).
Anyway we're not out of it yet! But it is starting to get difficult. We're going to need some assistance from other games that would border on the supernatural. I don't have the head for maths necessary to calculate how many of the 8,192 possible permutations of remaining results would see us into the quarter-finals, but a few of them would. For example, one outcome would leave us tied for 3rd place with just Glamorgan, and we'd have a good chance of beating them on NRR. But I wouldn't recommend taking the 28-1 on offer for Kent as outright winners. That does seem a bit cheeky. And one more defeat would definitely leave us 'playing for pride' (whatever that means).
Allan Donald had this to say about today's game:-
"Tough one for @kentcricket as we come 12 runs short against @gloscricket. Keep going men let's bounce back hard."
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Post by hhsussex on May 10, 2017 19:33:52 GMT
Continuing with my popular RL50 blog, after Kent's valiant attempt to score 120 off 20 with 9 in hand at Bristol today ... (well that was the last score I'd heard before getting home and finding out the result. I'd thought it seemed do-able). Anyway we're not out of it yet! But it is starting to get difficult. We're going to need some assistance from other games that would border on the supernatural. I don't have the head for maths necessary to calculate how many of the 8,192 possible permutations of remaining results would see us into the quarter-finals, but a few of them would. For example, one outcome would leave us tied for 3rd place with just Glamorgan, and we'd have a good chance of beating them on NRR. But I wouldn't recommend taking the 28-1 on offer for Kent as outright winners. That does seem a bit cheeky. And one more defeat would definitely leave us 'playing for pride' (whatever that means). Allan Donald had this to say about today's game:- "Tough one for @kentcricket as we come 12 runs short against @gloscricket. Keep going men let's bounce back hard." We feel your pain.
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Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 10, 2017 20:43:50 GMT
You're very kind! But don't count us out yet. Well actually, probably count us out yet. But ... the outcomes that have us in the quarter-finals are no more fanciful than those that don't. It's just that there are rather fewer of them.
Admirably candid account on the club website. Traditionally these reports resemble a masterclass in positives-mining, with headlines like "Kent Player Takes Wicket", and I've often felt they've come quite close to making savings where the truth is concerned. But today's reporter doesn't care what he says!
"Darren Stevens was angry with himself when caught behind off Liddle trying to run the ball down to third-man". (I saw Billings do that in the IPL the other day. It's never much of a vote-winner, that one). "Soon it was Northeast trudging back to the pavilion having smashed Liddle straight to long-on ... More poor shots accounted for Matt Coles and Alex Blake ... The Kent tail-enders flailed wildly ... "
Well it's nice to know we didn't just chuck it away.
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Bazpan
2nd XI player
Posts: 191
County club member: Kent
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Post by Bazpan on May 12, 2017 21:24:05 GMT
@kentcricket #PlayingForPrideNow
Incredible match at Southampton today, I'm sure you saw. Glamorgan, chasing 333, needed 82 off the last 6 overs. Came down to 5 off 2 balls. Got there with a six. What a thrill that must have been. Why can't Kent be like that? Well it was always going to be difficult as we did bowl a long way up today. That was quite a forbidding tail, with Haggett coming in at 7. I didn't go much on that, when we still had a chance of qualification. Actually, after today's other results, our chances would have improved from microscopic to slim had we beaten Surrey. We'd have needed two other matches to go our way on Sunday, and two other matches to go our way next Wednesday (as long as we won both our games, of course). Then we'd have been in a four-way tie for 3rd place, and strong favourites for net run-rate supremacy.
I bet Kent didn't even bother to work out that they were still in the competition before today's game. They've got form for it - fielding a weakened team, getting thrashed, and afterwards the captain says cheerfully that "We thought we'd give some of the other squad members a run out today as we were already eliminated" - when they weren't.
Allan Donald is still trying to find the right words. Meanwhile he's retweeting adverts for his clothing sponsor. Classic displacement activity.
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