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Post by philh on Aug 14, 2017 8:47:34 GMT
I'm ready to be told I am wrong, but here's my take on the League table with 7 matches to go.
As far as I can see, if we beat Essex and no games are tied/washed out and we maintain our run rate advantage over other counties and Surrey don't lose both of their remaining games, we are in the Quarter Finals.
We can achieve 14 points if we beat Essex. We cannot catch Glamorgan or Hampshire. There are four teams that can score more than 14 points - these are Essex, Surrey, Glos and Kent - they all have 12 points with two to play. Essex is in our own hands, so they are not a problem if we beat them. Surrey have to play Glos and Kent have to play Surrey meaning that the only way two sides can get ahead of us is if both Kent and Glos beat Surrey and win their other game.
If we lose our current run rate advantage, anything can happen (well, almost).
Of course, if a game is tied or washed out that opens up more possibilities of teams ending up with 15 points. If Surrey v Glos is washed out on Thursday, Surrey and Glos could be ahead of us if Glos win on Tuesday and Surrey win on Friday. That is a worst case scenario for us as a win against Essex will still not mean qualification.
All clear. Or, shall we just wait and see what happens? Or, have I wasted my time because Essex will win on Friday?
If you think my logic is wrong, please feel free to dive in. As the person who doubted the work of chiropractors said, I will gladly admit that I stand corrected.
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Post by flashblade on Aug 14, 2017 9:12:04 GMT
I'm ready to be told I am wrong, but here's my take on the League table with 7 matches to go. As far as I can see, if we beat Essex and no games are tied/washed out and we maintain our run rate advantage over other counties and Surrey don't lose both of their remaining games, we are in the Quarter Finals. We can achieve 14 points if we beat Essex. We cannot catch Glamorgan or Hampshire. There are four teams that can score more than 14 points - these are Essex, Surrey, Glos and Kent - they all have 12 points with two to play. Essex is in our own hands, so they are not a problem if we beat them. Surrey have to play Glos and Kent have to play Surrey meaning that the only way two sides can get ahead of us is if both Kent and Glos beat Surrey and win their other game. If we lose our current run rate advantage, anything can happen (well, almost). Of course, if a game is tied or washed out that opens up more possibilities of teams ending up with 15 points. If Surrey v Glos is washed out on Thursday, Surrey and Glos could be ahead of us if Glos win on Tuesday and Surrey win on Friday. That is a worst case scenario for us as a win against Essex will still not mean qualification. All clear. Or, shall we just wait and see what happens? Or, have I wasted my time because Essex will win on Friday? If you think my logic is wrong, please feel free to dive in. As the person who doubted the work of chiropractors said, I will gladly admit that I stand corrected. I prefer to just wait and see what happens! Que sera sera. |
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Post by Wicked Cricket on Aug 14, 2017 11:04:17 GMT
While, I am a great believer in balanced optimism, "if" we don't get through to the QFs then there are certain moments during the
competition which Sussex must take responsibility for and not attempt to blame their woes on bad luck or poor weather.
These include
: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Middlesex at Lord's (one remembers Sussex achieving a similar fate against Hampshire
at Hove a few years back).
: The 18th over against Surrey yesterday.
: Failing to score 8 runs in the final 8th over against Kent at Hove which led to a tie, after all their hard work reaching that point.
Pressure affects all teams, but it seems to affect Sussex, perhaps, a little more than most?
Meanwhile, hey-ho for Friday. The weather forecast, at present, looks better than Thursday, which is a good thing, although the home
games of Surrey and Essex on that Thursday evening may be affected and throws a further spanner in the works if one or both are
abandoned.
PS: I watched the game on SKY and what I find sad at present, is how lost Luke Wright appears to be. He is so desperate to play
well for Sussex but this desperation seems to be affecting his batting. Each time the SKY cameras turned on the Sussex hutch yesterday,
there was Luke nervously chewing his finger nails. I do so hope he comes up with a big score on Friday and helps guide us through to
the QFs. Given his second troubled season in a row, he really deserves that.
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Post by flashblade on Aug 14, 2017 11:14:17 GMT
While, I am a great believer in balanced optimism, "if" we don't get through to the QFs then there are certain moments during the
competition which Sussex must take responsibility for and not attempt to blame their woes on bad luck or poor weather.These include: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Middlesex at Lord's (one remembers Sussex achieving a similar fate against Hampshire at Hove a few years back). : The 18th over against Surrey yesterday. : Failing to score 8 runs in the final 8th over against Kent at Hove which led to a tie, after all their hard work reaching that point. Pressure affects all teams, but it seems to affect Sussex, perhaps, more than most. Meanwhile, hey-ho for Friday. The weather forecast, at present, looks better than Thursday, which is a good thing, although the home games of Surrey and Essex on that Thursday evening may be affected and throws a further spanner in the works if one or both are abandoned. To be fair, all teams have lapses. Were there not occasions where our opponents performed badly, and from which we gained an (unearned) benefit? |
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Post by crickettrader on Aug 14, 2017 14:17:30 GMT
I think the fact that all 9 teams can still qualify going into match 13 of 14 match schedule tells us they are all pretty much of a muchness and have probably all got hard luck stories / instances of choking to tell at some point of the campaign.
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Post by joe on Aug 14, 2017 16:29:26 GMT
I sometimes venture onto the Surrey members forum ' come on the rey! ' and it reads almost identicaly to ours! Overseas not performing, management need replacing, not using their own youngsters etc etc
We've seen some brainless cricket from Sussex but as cricketrader says, they are all as bad as each other in this comp.
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Post by philh on Aug 15, 2017 19:02:39 GMT
Bad result tonight. We wanted Middlesex to beat Glos but not by a huge margin. They have leapt from bottom to third and have a better run rate than us now.
We need Glamorgan to beat Middlesex on Friday by a decent margin and we need to beat Essex comfortably. Slide rules may be needed on Friday.
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