|
|
Post by tiptoes on May 7, 2021 10:19:21 GMT
It was on the cards that the Tories would beat Labour in one of their traditional strongholds although the scale of the victory probably surpassed every Tory optimist expectations. Even the Blair govt at it's most popular couldn't win a by election by taking a Conservative seat when the Cons were in opposition, so things looking grim for Starmer.
That having been said in 2017 when May was PM she won Copeland from Labour but on a far smaller swing, and while this prompted the utterly useless incumbent PM to call a General Election with not unrealistic hopes of a 200 seat majority, Corbyn became something of a cult figure almost forming a Coalition govt with the SNP, such was the turnaround, which says as much about May as Corbyn, who was humiliated 2 years later.
Although this a landmark by election victory, it is by no means the most fascinating. When Labour lost Bermondsey to the Liberals in 1983 as the electorate "turned away" from Peter Tatchell, the greatest shock, equivalent to Ireland beating West Indies at cricket back in the 1960s, was when George Galloway initially at 1000-1 won Bradford West from Labour in 2013 as the block Muslim vote transferred their loyalties to his Respect Party. And did the meeja hate the fact Galloway won. The press relegated it to a footnote and the BBC who wont shut up about Hartlepool on their 1.00 News today, made it only their 3rd lead item. Never believe the beeb have a pro Muslim anti Israel bias, quite the reverse in keeping with their Blairite principles.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on May 10, 2021 17:56:18 GMT
One of the messages that came out of the Eastbourne by election over 30 years ago is to have a local candidate to stand the best chance of winning (Bradford W being the exception). The LDs in 1990 were on the verge of irrelevance having secured just 6% in the Euros a year earlier eclipsed by the Greens on 15%. But the outsider Tory candidate, Peter Hickmet, was such a numpty making gaff after gaff on local issues, it was hardly surprising the localish David Bellotti won, and with the poll tax handicap and limited appeal of Kinnock, this was the catalyst for an LD national fightback.
So recent by elections in Eastleigh won by LD, Peterborough and Newport W won by Labour and Copeland won by Conservative were secured because the victors all lived in the respective constituencies and had good track records.
And what do Labour and Conservative, as well as other parties, do in Hartlepool but pick candidates light years away from the constituency which worked out ok for the Tory woman farmer from N Yorkshire who had probably never even stopped off in Hartlepool for petrol until a few weeks ago, but if the clueless Labour party had chosen a Hartlepool local who pretended he respected the EU result, he or she would have performed much better against the Tory outsider and could have played on her lack of local knowledge. I know Hartlepool is hardly awash with above average IQ people who can articulate a Starmerish message but there must have been 1 in the local party.
So if the 2 mainstream parties have any sense in the forthcoming Batley & Spen by election they need to select someone with strong roots to the constituency.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Jun 18, 2021 17:30:18 GMT
Bad result for Tories in Amersham but even worse for Labour recording their lowest by election result ever. Can't all be blamed on tactical voting because Green vote held up quite well.
|
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jun 18, 2021 17:44:56 GMT
ðŸ¤
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Jun 18, 2021 18:18:57 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by flashblade on Jun 18, 2021 18:48:20 GMT
Well done Amersham. A massive two fingered salute to Johnson and the Hopeless party.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Jul 2, 2021 6:53:27 GMT
One good thing about Labour's win is that she was the only local candidate. As I said before, being connected to the constituency is far more important in by elections than national ones as community issues raise their head more often. Her win was probably assisted by keeping Starmer's name out of her campaign material as much as possible.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Dec 17, 2021 10:46:51 GMT
So LDs take N Shropshire on a massive swing. Once again unlike LD and Labour the idiotic Tories didnt pick a local candidate!! In by elections, more than a GE, people are going to talk about local matters and services and a local candidate who can empathise is far likelier to sway the electorate. If the LDs had picked an outsider and the Tory was a local, then the Cons would most likely have held on. Surely in that neck of the woods there must have been someone capable?
The only crumbs Conservative can take is that this was a dire performance by Labour who have traditionally come 2nd and even close to winning in 1997 and the far right parties like Reclaim and Reform didn't eat into the Tory vote, despite the Reform candidate being a local.
|
|
|
|
Post by gmdf on Dec 17, 2021 10:57:41 GMT
So LDs take N Shropshire on a massive swing. Once again unlike LD and Labour the idiotic Tories didnt pick a local candidate!! In by elections, more than a GE, people are going to talk about local matters and services and a local candidate who can empathise is far likelier to sway the electorate. If the LDs had picked an outsider and the Tory was a local, then the Cons would most likely have held on. Surely in that neck of the woods there must have been someone capable? The only crumbs Conservative can take is that this was a dire performance by Labour who have traditionally come 2nd and even close to winning in 1997 and the far right parties like Reclaim and Reform didn't eat into the Tory vote, despite the Reform candidate being a local. Clear evidence of Labour and other non-Tory party supporters getting behind the only candidate they thought able to defeat the Tory. |
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Dec 17, 2021 11:06:22 GMT
So LDs take N Shropshire on a massive swing. Once again unlike LD and Labour the idiotic Tories didnt pick a local candidate!! In by elections, more than a GE, people are going to talk about local matters and services and a local candidate who can empathise is far likelier to sway the electorate. If the LDs had picked an outsider and the Tory was a local, then the Cons would most likely have held on. Surely in that neck of the woods there must have been someone capable? The only crumbs Conservative can take is that this was a dire performance by Labour who have traditionally come 2nd and even close to winning in 1997 and the far right parties like Reclaim and Reform didn't eat into the Tory vote, despite the Reform candidate being a local. Clear evidence of Labour and other non-Tory party supporters getting behind the only candidate they thought able to defeat the Tory. A bad result for Labour, no disguising that. In a seat where Labour have traditionally come 2nd they could have been the protest vote. This isn't Amersham where Labour were in 3rd place so the LDs were the obvious party to unite behind to oust the Conservatives. |
|
|
|
Post by flashblade on Dec 17, 2021 11:33:54 GMT
Clear evidence of Labour and other non-Tory party supporters getting behind the only candidate they thought able to defeat the Tory. A bad result for Labour, no disguising that. In a seat where Labour have traditionally come 2nd they could have been the protest vote. This isn't Amersham where Labour were in 3rd place so the LDs were the obvious party to unite behind to oust the Conservatives. Disagree. When Tory voters decide they want to switch to another party, the shift to Lib Dem is a more palatable haven, compared to a massive lurch from right to left. Hopefully, post Brexit, we're back to a non-binary system. |
|
|
|
Post by flashblade on Dec 17, 2021 11:37:53 GMT
BTW, tiptoes - it might be an idea to change the title of this thread to e.g. "By-elections" When members see Hartlepool in the title, they might assume it's one of your more esoteric threads! Just a thought.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Dec 17, 2021 11:54:50 GMT
A bad result for Labour, no disguising that. In a seat where Labour have traditionally come 2nd they could have been the protest vote. This isn't Amersham where Labour were in 3rd place so the LDs were the obvious party to unite behind to oust the Conservatives. Disagree. When Tory voters decide they want to switch to another party, the shift to Lib Dem is a more palatable haven, compared to a massive lurch from right to left. Hopefully, post Brexit, we're back to a non-binary system. Starmer is hardly Jeremy Corbyn. But if what you said is true, there's little future hope for Starmer and Labour. If exasperated Tory voters aren't going to switch to Labour like they did to Blair there's no hope for them at the next General Election. |
|
|
|
Post by flashblade on Dec 17, 2021 13:11:08 GMT
Disagree. When Tory voters decide they want to switch to another party, the shift to Lib Dem is a more palatable haven, compared to a massive lurch from right to left. Hopefully, post Brexit, we're back to a non-binary system. Starmer is hardly Jeremy Corbyn. But if what you said is true, there's little future hope for Starmer and Labour. If exasperated Tory voters aren't going to switch to Labour like they did to Blair there's no hope for them at the next General Election. I think that's a non-sequiter, TBH. I think we were talking about a protest vote at a by-election, when voters know that a change of government is not at stake. I don't think you can extrapolate Labour's chances at the next election on the basis of this result. I think they realised that the Lib Dems stood the best chance of shafting Johnson. This seat has been Tory for 200 years, I gather. |
|
|
|
Post by tiptoes on Dec 17, 2021 15:29:44 GMT
Not a non sequitur. People are more likely to take a risk at a by election than General Election because it is just a protest.
In 1994 when there was a by election at Eastleigh, at a time when the Major govt was more unpopular than the Johnson govt now, the LDs were the favourites to win the seat and did so but Labour put up a strong showing pushing the Tories into 3rd place. And that was before everyone (except me) got deluded by the excitement of the Blair creature and his vacuous New Labour product.
|
|
