v Kent (A) Sun 18th July T20 Blast

With the weather forecast predicting temperatures in the late 20s (or high 80s in old money), Sussex head to Canterbury for the final game of the group stage. A wet Sunday may have suited Sussex, who need one point to qualify for the Quarter Finals. As it is, Sussex will have to put aside the misfortune of having five games washed out and, shall we say, questionable umpiring decisions to call of the Surrey game, and go out all out for a win.

To qualify, the permutations are as follows:

• A win guarantees a Quarter Final place. Second place and a home Quarter Final tie is guaranteed if Sussex win and Somerset lose or share the points in their game with Gloucestershire.
  
  
• A tie or a wash-out, however unlikely, means that Sussex qualify, but the second spot is dependent on Somerset's result. A tie or win for Somerset means we will not grab second spot.
• If Sussex lose, it's more complicated. You will need to pay attention here! If Sussex lose, Sussex cannot make second spot and would, therefore, play away in the Quarter Finals if they still qualified. Whether they qualify is dependent on what happens to Gloucestershire and Hampshire in their final game as well as the scale of Sussex's defeat. First of all, let's consider the scale of the defeat. If Sussex lose by a margin that causes their run rate to drop from +0.371 to below +0.332, Sussex would drop below Surrey. This would mean that if either Gloucestershire or Hampshire perform well enough in their last game, Sussex would not qualify. If Sussex stay above Surrey's run rate, Sussex will only fail to qualify if both Gloucestershire and Hampshire overtake them. Gloucestershire would need a win to ensure they overtook Sussex, although a tie or draw would not be good enough unless Sussex dropped below Gloucestershire's run rate of +0.328. Hampshire's current run rate is +0.108, so they need a fairly big win over Glamorgan to jump from 6th place to qualification.

The Hampshire game takes place earlier in the day than the Kent v Sussex and Somerset v Gloucestershire games, so Sussex will know whether Hampshire are a threat to qualification before taking to the field.

And, so we are left to ponder whether Sussex can get over the line. Sussex face Kent, who have impressively won 9 and lost 3 of their games. Although Kent have performed well, their three defeats have been big defeats - by 10 wickets and 47 runs to Somerset and 8 wickets to Gloucestershire. There has been no pattern to Kent's games. Some have been high-scoring, some have been low-scoring. Kent have been inconsistently consistent. Can Sussex get the point they need to qualify? Yes, they can!

Southern Group Table (all played 13 except Surrey who have played 14)

Kent 19 Pts
Somerset 16 Pts +0.296
Sussex 15 Pts +0.371
Surrey 15 Pts +0.332
Gloucestershire 14 Pts +0.328
Hampshire 13 Pts +.0.108
Essex 11 Pts -0.469
Glamorgan 8 Pts -1.179
Middlesex 7 Pts -0.461

Final games (all Sunday)

Essex v Middlesex (Chelmsford) - 14.30
Hampshire v Glamorgan (Southampton) - 14.30
Kent v Sussex (Canterbury) - 18.30
Somerset v Gloucestershire (Taunton) - 18.30
Surrey - no game